Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 206.334521 246.666479 295.249770 358.847485 441.051359 545.341930 6.903391e+02
2025-09-14 157.450303 204.610978 268.108896 362.413556 503.587851 715.367429 1.074770e+03
2025-09-21 132.203451 182.132591 254.936179 373.805733 573.683994 918.992809 1.621900e+03
2025-09-28 112.532530 161.751157 237.875669 371.519983 618.093103 1097.778792 2.248569e+03
2025-10-05 104.562539 156.662513 242.100365 403.661052 732.656925 1463.541593 3.600269e+03
2025-10-12 97.176283 150.786028 243.218445 429.833931 845.767364 1895.843956 5.670667e+03
2025-10-19 90.149030 144.108692 241.245450 449.028972 951.962591 2387.445330 8.791565e+03
2025-10-26 83.356651 136.653251 236.206743 460.215859 1044.356157 2916.935573 1.335969e+04
2025-11-02 76.770691 128.548695 228.341004 462.924364 1116.479624 3449.990631 1.977049e+04
2025-11-09 69.894028 118.963794 215.870019 451.688667 1144.858053 3854.954148 2.718732e+04
2025-11-16 63.975596 110.486963 204.368645 440.118849 1168.371133 4274.689262 3.748829e+04
2025-11-23 58.756583 102.780109 193.372171 427.347397 1183.588951 4685.110215 5.144413e+04
2025-11-30 57.659275 103.330851 200.837787 466.779229 1407.411990 6578.074007 1.246754e+05
2025-12-07 54.286104 98.831158 196.260976 471.865338 1509.188708 7973.215756 2.450874e+05
2025-12-14 51.906097 96.122824 195.416752 487.866157 1669.107482 10223.458602 6.425340e+05
2025-12-21 48.723849 91.335046 188.853784 484.656927 1744.150308 12010.214030 1.546017e+06
2025-12-28 48.210633 92.302163 196.606835 529.990139 2093.315185 18154.119800 2.088462e+07
2026-01-04 47.222509 92.081213 201.321171 567.175283 2443.080380 26801.606591 1.884824e+11
2026-01-11 45.841017 90.794678 203.028376 594.594976 2771.369629 38400.449169 NaN
2026-01-18 44.123517 88.532655 201.738829 610.631614 3050.003571 52809.066383 NaN
2026-01-25 42.133567 85.420324 197.627903 614.520470 3252.681972 68899.810008 NaN
2026-02-01 39.687937 80.986357 189.173558 598.403978 3288.847870 80058.431926 NaN
2026-02-08 37.434062 76.839433 181.063937 581.851718 3312.163996 92387.372391 NaN